The world is on the brink of another global pandemic, and the signs are everywhere. From the alarming diphtheria outbreak in Australia to the rapidly spreading Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, the threat of a global health crisis is looming. According to Professor Adrian Esterman, the chances of a pandemic as severe as COVID-19 breaking out in our lifetime are "very high." This is a chilling prospect, but it's not just the severity of the disease that's concerning. It's the unpredictability of the virus that could be responsible for the next global pandemic. What makes this particularly fascinating is the potential impact of the H5N1 avian flu strain, which has already infected millions of birds and other animals around the world and has even started spreading from animals to humans. While no human-to-human transmissions have been reported yet, the human mortality rate is high, and the strain has already caused significant concern among epidemiologists. What many people don't realize is that Australia and Oceania are currently the only regions in the world that remain free of the H5N1 strain. This is a double-edged sword, as it means we are well-prepared if the H5N1 strain does become a pandemic, but it also means we are vulnerable to the spread of other diseases. One thing that immediately stands out is the importance of preparedness. Australia has made significant strides in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, with its own Centre for Disease Control, purpose-built quarantine stations, a Moderna factory that can produce vaccines, and stockpiled drugs and equipment. However, if the next pandemic doesn't hit for 15 years or more, we may have forgotten what we have learned during COVID-19. This raises a deeper question: are we training our future experts and leaders to be ready to deal with the next pandemic? It's crucial that COVID-19 learnings are included in university curricula so that future experts and leaders are exposed to them. Australia also needs to continue developing and updating pandemic preparedness plans at national, state, and territory levels, and work on social determinants of health, like access to health services and trust in health authorities. This is a complex issue, and it's not just about the technical aspects of preparedness. It's also about the human element. We need to remind ourselves that no one is safe until everyone is safe. This is a powerful message that should resonate with all of us. While the risk of Australia experiencing another major pandemic in the near future is high, the general public shouldn't lose sleep over it. Instead, they should take steps to protect themselves and others from localized outbreaks of diseases like diphtheria, measles, and syphilis. People like myself and other epidemiologists are keeping a careful eye on things, and the CDC is also monitoring the situation closely. I'm more worried about the drop in vaccine coverage, as it's causing these smaller outbreaks that we don't want or need. Australia's vaccination rates have been declining since the COVID-19 pandemic, and diseases that had previously been eradicated in Australia, like endemic measles, are making alarming resurgences. Declining trust in public health and misinformation spread online haven't helped the situation. This is a critical issue that needs to be addressed. We need to trust the Australian public health advice and act based on that. As a CDC spokesperson said, the question is not whether infectious disease outbreaks and health emergencies will occur, but how well-prepared we are when they do. Strong public health systems, informed communities, and high vaccination coverage remain among our best protections against future health threats. In conclusion, the threat of another global pandemic is real, and we need to be prepared. We need to learn from the past, train our future experts and leaders, and take steps to protect ourselves and others. It's a challenging task, but it's one that we must embrace if we want to ensure a healthier and safer future for all.
